At Daily Delphi we know about the power of the crowd. We also know it’s possible to build a Wiser Crowd. This is a short list of things to think about as you make your daily forecast.
1) Be a consumer of information: Search for the latest news and commentaries. Then evaluate the facts instead of the opinions. The more you know about anything the more you know about everything.
2) Be a regular forecaster: The more you do something the better you become. The better you become the better the Daily Delphi becomes.
3) When assigning a probability to your forecasts don’t overestimate your accuracy: Research has shown that individuals tend to be overly optimistic in their ability and underestimate the ability of others.
4) Keep your time horizon short: It’s difficult enough to predict an event at the end of the day.
5) Use a process to make your forecast: Will the market settle up or down? What news or events will affect the market? Will volume be light or heavy? After you’ve considered multiple variables you can choose direction. Once you’ve chosen direction hone in on a settlement price.
6) Track your results. The ‘History” section has a historical graph to show you how your forecasts did against actual market results and the Daily Delphi crowd. Over time you can try different methods to improve your accuracy. Soon we’ll begin scoring members based on their results. By using these tools you can refine your process.
7) Revise your forecast as new information becomes available. You can revise your forecast up to the 9:00 AM each day.
8) Consider the settlement price from multiple perspectives: For example, first consider why the event will occur, and then consider why it might not. Which assumptions and considerations could have been wrong? This process makes it less likely that you'll overlook important information that you already have!
9) Avoid making extreme probability judgments: (e.g. oil often settles within $2 of the previous days settlement price) A forecast out side of this range should be grounded in information you posses. Be familiar with the market you are forecasting and its daily characteristics.