Daily Delphi

Post: Friday - And the answer is.... | Daily Delphi

BlogsPit Talk › Friday - And the answer is.... December 6, 2013, 6:50 am

7:30 AM CT
Nonfarm Payrolls
Forecast 186K Prior 204K
Personal Income
Forecast 0.4% Prior 0.5%
8:55 AM CT
Michigan Sentiment
Forecast 77.0 Prior 75.1
Consumer Credit
Forecast $15.4B Prior $13.7B

Over the last 5 trading sessions the Dec S&P contract has lost 22 points. Not bad compared to the 150 point run up over the last 8 weeks. Yesterday's strong GDP and initial claims headline numbers and Wednesday's ADP employment number have everyone waiting for last call later this month. Today's nonfarm payrolls number may very well tell the tale. Although traders have begun to price in tapering as early as the December Fed meeting the markets have come a long way of late. Any big surprise in the payroll number could make for an abrupt move across the markets. Trade strong


Yesterday's stronger than expected GDP Q3 estimate came in at 3.6%, much stronger than the expected 3.0%. Initial claims also came in better than expected at 298K. All the good news weighed on the equities as traders continued to price in last call. A deeper look into the numbers gave reason for pause. A big jump in inventories and a deceleration in personal spending were primarily responsible for the rise in the GDP Q3 estimate. And a problem with the seasonal adjustment may have biased the initial claims number. All and all not a terribly convincing argument for Big Daddy to end the party. The markets took the information in stride and are waiting for today's data to make a commitment.

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